The IntersectionX and Superpicks watchlists are up to date and may be viewed HERE. There are only two Superpicks this week. DDD drops as it is no longer rated #1 at Zacks.
Using consistent scoring from prior weeks, this is how our lists look. It isn’t pretty after a good week last week. The only ETF of the list we follow that was in the black last week was Emerging Markets, small caps, especially value, getting the worst treatment. The IBD50 Top-10 list had 0% winners last week. Usually this would imply an up week next week, however, with the short trading week and that fiscal cliff I am making no encouraging recommendations.
However, it should be remembered that we only started our Superpicks watchlist on week commencing 2/4/12. The numbers for all the other lists above are a full year. If we make an like-to-like comparison, this is how the numbers stack up:
Those first few weeks of 2012 made a difference. Our Superpicks have made 28.33% from inception which doubles the return from the IBD50 Top-10 for the same period. As the Superpicks has fewer holdings, its volatility as measured by standard deviation is higher. These numbers have no money management in them. What is interesting is that the Superpicks have had a very few blow-out weeks driven by one stock (and a few sorry weeks driven by the same) which show how missing (or avoiding) those weeks could make a big difference.
For example on the week of 7/14, the Superpicks were up 15.5% on average aided by a 35% jump in Melanox (MLNX). MLNX actually hit higher numbers during that week. What goes up often comes down and MLNX is now priced lower than it was at the start of that week. The worst week in the Superpicks was a -8.4% week the week of 10/13. In that week (yes it was MLNX) Mellanox sold off 25.5%. Align (ALGN) was close behind with a 24.3% sell-off.
To keep it simple, for those looking for timing signals (I happen to think trailing stops work well here, pick your own %age) consider being out of the market when IBD says the uptrend is under pressure and certainly be out when they say the market is in correction.
A quick recap on how we figure our numbers. Score is kept by Google Finance, Friday close to Friday close. I use VectorVest quick tests for the index performance, same time period. I average the +% and -% of each watchlist for the weekly performance. The numbers of stocks in the IntersectionX and Superpicks changes. These weekly averages are compounded weekly to arrive at the YTD performance. Others are simple averages — yearly and four week — of those averages. It may not be perfect but it is consistent and, I think, resaonably indicative of the results an individual might achieve.
A happy and successful 2013 to you, the efforts of our elected representatives to the contrary nothwithstanding.