Tag Archives: IntersectioNx

ST50, IBD50, Ix portfolio and watchlist performance: and how these lists really compare.

3 Sep

This weekly  look back will probably be the more weighty of the work we do on the watchlists this weekend.  Before we get to the numbers, we’ll look at what really differentiates the watchlists this week, and in general.

In his weekly ST50 commentary this week Ivan Hoff speaks of the difficulty that European banks are having in financing.  Please remember that last week we pointed out that Christine Lagard, the head of the IMF, was calling for increased capitalization of European banks.  She was rebuffed the following week.  Ivan also reports negative Swiss short-term interest rates.  If you remember our post “Fun with Francs” of a few weeks ago I said the Swiss would be working hard to get the value of their currency down.  Hence the negative rates.  Problem is, it hasn’t worked.  So what are the Swiss to do? Declare war on Italy?  The best suggestion I have heard is that they will have to peg the Franc to another currency, and for now the best candidate is the Euro.  In the meantime the dickering between Greece and its reluctant lenders over collateral continues.  Back home, we had the worst jobs report since 1945 this week.  Who knows where the market will go, but I am still of the opinion that affairs in Europe continue to be the other shoe waiting to drop and the results could be quite nasty if it drops the wrong way.

However, there is still money to be made if you can pick your stocks.  While the broad markets were flat to slightly negative the Stocktwits50 returned 2.18% (Fri-Fri) this week ably assisted by a 35% price hike from MITK.  The IntersectionX list was second with a 1.23% average price rise.

However, particularly in the current market conditions it’s essential that we understand how the IBD50 and ST50 differ.  This is a distribution of price changes from the two lists this week:

As you can see, the IBD50 has a much greater central tendency — twenty nine of its stock rose or fell 2.5% this week.  The ST50 has significantly higher dispersal, this week skewed to the positive side with a very nice outlier, MITK.  ALthough, even if one removes MITK from the result, the ST50 would still be #1 this week, just.  The other take home is about the IntersectioNx watchlist.  Because it draws on stocks that appear on BOTH the IBD50 and the ST50, it will always be confined to the tighter distribution of the two.  Typically, I believe this will be the IBD50.  Which is OK, because what I have hoped for this list is market-beating returns with lower volatility than either of the two parent lists.  As time goes by we’ll see how my plan works out.

The numbers tell the story of the lists based on this week pretty well to:

Yellow signifies the highest value.  We can see that typically, the ST50 has a greater dispersion of results and hence a wider range of likely outcomes.  It also has the lowest average stock prices in keeping with the types of stocks likely to be found on the ST50.

I hope this gives some slightly better insight into the nature of these lists.  I will re-run this comparison on an unscheduled basis.  Now to the numbers:

When I updated the IntersectioNx and Stocktwits Top10 portfolios midweek, in the ST portfolio we would (again)  have been better at that point sticking with the week earlier selections.  I commented on this earlier in the week, please see the comments to that post as there are some updates.

  • IntersectioNx portfolio: Last week $99,614, . This week $100,905.
  • Stocktwits Top 10: Last week $102,703, This week $103,718. (BiWeekly update, $103,742, not much difference).
  • IBD Top 10: Last week $52,409, This week $52,348

OK, our benchmarks have the following results this week (Friday to Friday):

  • S&P 500:  -0.24%
  • NASDAQ Composite:   +0.02%
  • Wilshire 5000:  -0.20%
  • Russell 2000:  -1.22%

I stil wonder if we have truly seen the bottom of this market.  I hope so, but I am not too sure about it, personally.

Our watchlists performed as follows, Friday to Friday:

  • IntersectioNx:  +1.23%, 5W5L, JAZZ +9.88%, WCN -2.97%
  • IBD50:  +1.16%, 29W20L1E, JAZZ 9.88%, HIBB -5.28%
  • IBD50 Top 10: -0.08% 4W6L
  • ST50: +2.18% 28W22L MITK +35.26%, AUQ -12.79% Best watchlist this week
  • ST50 Top-10: +1.22%

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Stocktwits, IBD and IntersectioNx weekly numbers 8/27

27 Aug

The portfolios did better this week, although when I updated the IntersectioNx and Stocktwits Top10 portfolios midweek, we would have been better at that point sticking with the week earlier selections.

  • IntersectioNx portfolio: Last week $96,850, -3.15%. This week $99,614, -0.39%
  • Stocktwits Top 10: Last week $99,216, -0.78%, This week $102,703, +2.7%
  • IBD Top 10: Last week $47,183 -5.63%, This week $52,409 +4.82%.  Now that’s a reversal.  This is the monthly portfolio which will be refreshed this weekend.

OK, our benchmarks have the following results this week (Friday to Friday):

  • S&P 500:  +4.74%%
  • NASDAQ Composite:   +5.89%
  • Wilshire 5000:  +4.86%
  • Russell 2000:  +6.15% Nice.  The NASDAQ 100 was up 6.07% too.

So, one has to wonder.  Have we seen a bottom or is this still just a bounce?

Our watchlists performed as follows, Friday to Friday:

  • IntersectioNx:  +3.06%.  RGLD +6.9%, HANS +6.44% 6W 0L
  • IBD50:  +5,58%. ACTG +17.25%, CERN +16.34%.  Best watchlist this week.
  • IBD50 Top 10: +4.9%. HLF +8.85%, MA +8.39%
  • ST50: +4.16%. STAA +18.7%, MG +12.18%
  • ST50 Top-10: +3.43%. RGR +10.37%, CF +9.43%

So, the IBD big list has it again for this week.  I think the main take home is the reversal from two weeks ago.  Last week we saw losses in these watchlists from 6% to nearly 11%.  This week all the green with reversal percentages from 10% to 16%.  Not sure this is a full reversal but with strong money management there may some some dollar to made (or lost).  I’d still say caution is warranted, personally.

While the man on the right in this picture had everyone’s attention Friday, and whose at least not negative comments may give a temporary lift to our domestic markets the man on the left — ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet — still has a lot of influence over what will happen to our markets.  This weekend, IMF Head Christine Lagarde made less sanguine comments on the Global economy and called for additional capitalization of European banks.  Coupled with renewed grumbling from the ungrateful Greeks makes me think that perhaps the ability of Europe to roil our markets is not yet done.   And when the head of the IMF can’t afford a car, you know things are bad!

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IntersectioNx, Stocktwits50 and IBD50 weekly numbers

19 Aug

Our IntersectioNx portfolio started the week worth $106,890, ended it at $96,851.  Which is over a 9% loss.  Remember we don’t employ stops in our tracking portfolios.  Our Stocktwits50 top-10 portfolio started at $109,855 and ended at $99,216.  Another 9+% shellacking.  The IBD50 Top-10 monthly portfolio started at $54,813 and ended at $47,183, a near 14% sell-off.  This is the first time the portfolio has been into negative territory since I started it on January 23rd this year.  To really put things into perspective, at its peak in July this portfolio was worth $66,973, so based on that peak we have sold off 30%!  It would be easy to say that everyone’s stops would have kicked in to save the day but you know that there are folk out there staring losses like this in the face, probably while being consoled by their clueless financial advisors and being reminded that they’re in this for the long haul.

I would also be interested to know how many folk got suckered back in by the rally and lost more money.  If you’ve followed our posts this week you’ll have seen that using our tracking portfolios as a guide we never saw five straight days of gains, which is one marker we use to guide entries.  Vectorvest’s primary wave gave an “Up” this week (Up 8/15, Down 8/18), as an example of some market indicators sending bullish signals.  While one signal does not an indication make, I would bet that some folk bought in on it fearing missing the bottom.  This is why I try to be a pig, not a hog.  I don’t want to get slaughtered.   Using VTI as a guide, Marketclub had a short term indicator up on 8/11 but had folk out again on 8/18 for a slight profit.  That said, you would have had to be pretty nimble on the alerts to have exited that trade in a good position.  My personal trinvesting style leads me to measure my shortest holdings in weeks not days or hours (Hopefully.  That’s the way I plan it, anyway), so I try to be a tad cautious most of the time.

Before we get to the numbers for the week though, what is it Cramer says?  “There’s always a bull market somewhere.”?  Running through my watchlists in TC200 the commodity ETFs have a lot of green ink today, particularly in the agriculturals.  For example, SGG (sugar ETF) gained 9.88% for the week and JJS (softs) 9.0%.  Would you like those numbers?  Most people don’t follow the commodity ETFs but I will be sorting through for some opportunities.

OK, our benchmarks have the following results this week (Friday to Friday):

  • S&P 500:  -4.69%
  • NASDAQ Composite:   -6.62%
  • Wilshire 5000:  -5.06%
  • Russell 2000:  -5.02%

Our watchlists performed as follows, Friday to Friday:

  • IntersectioNx:  -9.27%.  LULU -20.89% (that had to happen sooner or later), BIDU -15.43%, CMG -12.06%
  • IBD50:  -6.71%. GOLD +9.17%, CVLD -22.59%, INFA – 19.64%, ULTA -16.48%
  • IBD50 Top 10: -10.44%  Leaders have been leading the decline this week. E.g., LULU, ULTA
  • ST50: -8.84%. CEF +9.92%, AUQ +8.05%, CBOU – 22.52%, ININ -21.39%
  • ST50 Top-10: -8.53%.  Fewer extremes than the full list with much the same overall result.

So, the IBD big list has it for this week however it had some big losers.  Mining and metals stocks helped out.  Notably, the Top-10 lists and the INx took hard hits this week, reflecting again that leaders suffered this week.  Changes in the watchlists this weekend, but in the meantime, check out the commodity ETFs.

 

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Using volume to pick off our watchlists. Vectorvest and other indicators line up.

15 Aug

Following on from our post of last night about using the Vectorvest Market Timing Indicator and movements in the value of our selected portfolios as indicators of market direction — they continued their upward path today too.  Two other indicators joined to show short-term bullish sentiment.  Major indices crossed the 10-day SMA to the upside (DJ total stock market shown below) and the Vectorvest Primary Wave (a proprietary indicator based on a 5-day move in the price of their VVC composite) also turned up.

However, when I went to look at my favorite watchlists to pick some buy candidates, their overall performance versus the overall market was a bit, well, lackluster.  So I did a bit of diamond mining based on changes in volume.    Following in the table below is a list of all issues today from the watchlists we follow on this blog, that:

  1. Went up in price today AND
  2. On volume that was 10% or more over average

Some of these issues had big volume increases and decent price moves, others had volume spikes and not to much of a price hike to speak of.  I will probably tend to companies I have a soft spot for alreadty or have been following for a while.  PRGO and ABV for example.  Having named two stocks, I should tell you that the following data are just numbers pulled from list sorts that you may find interesting, not my recommendations.  But you may find the list interesting.  I hope so anyway.

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IntersectioNx portfolio and weekly performance; IBD and Stocktwits too

12 Aug

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Welcome to our new IntersectioNx portfolio.  We established it at the open last Monday, with $100,000 capital invested.  I should point out that as we go forward this means that at update (whether this is weekly or monthly, and I am hoping monthly will work out as I consider that practical) we may have unequal invested values per position as the number of stocks in the IntersectioNx can and does change every week.

Long story short, this list of stocks which appear on both the Stocktwits 50 and IBD 50 returned 6.89% from the open Monday when I initiated the portfolio. For the purposes of comparison with some following numbers, had we initiated the portfolio at the close last Friday we would have had 3.09%.  Either way, I am happy with its performance.

Measured from Friday our benchmarks returned:

  • S&P 500 -1.72%
  • NASDAQ composite -0.96%
  • Wilshire 5000 -1.52%
  • Russell 2000 -2.62%

Friday night to Friday night, here’s how the watchlists we follow, and their Top-10 components worked out:

Stocktwits50 Top-10:  +4.6%  (MITK, +11.59%; JAZZ, 11.43%; CBOU, +10.14%)

Stocktwits 50:  -0.10% (DTLK, +15.65%; CF, +14.69%, SODA, -31.89%; ZOLL, -21.75%, DDS, -20.77%)

IBD 50 Top-10: +0.80% (LULU, +8.55%; FOSL, -15.56%)

IBD 50: +0.86% (JAZZ, +11.43%; SLW, +9.19%; NTES, 9.02%, DV, -23.05%)

So, ST50 top-10 pulled away with a clear win, however the full list didn’t do quite so well.  The IBD top-10 and the main list produced almost the same performance.  What we are seeing is the absolutes in high and low performance stand out in the ST50.  It offers higher rewards but also requires a stronger stomach.  What’s new?  Hopefully our IntersectioNx list will allow us to enjoy the best of both Worlds.  We will see.

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IntersectioNx list and market moves

11 Aug

Like most, I’m watching the market for signs of a turn North as a buying signal.  I haven’t seen anything that would cause me to decide yet, we’ll see what tomorrow brings.  However, I do know that one of my first ports of call for a shopping list will be my IntersectioNx watchlist.  Maybe I should have started Monday, as the average of the current IntersectioNx for this week from Monday’s open is 5.4% — and it shouldn’t be lost on you that the broader markets are actually slightly to the positive too.

In the July bounce I found that VectorVest’s MTI and the equity graph of my IBD50 portfolio to be good reversal indicators.  They both indicated a small turn today but there is nothing to make me jump in yet.  But, as we see from our IntersectioNx watchlist, there is money to be made — witness JAZZ and BIDU!

In the past I have used Marketclub’s weekly trade triangles for managing longer term positions with some success.  If you are looking for a faster indicator attached to quality issues like those in our IntersectioNx list, you may wish to consider their daily trade triangles.  Marketclub has a decent trial membership program so you could effectively get a free look for a few weeks.  I’ve posted the current JAZZ chart from Marketclub below so that you can get some sort of feel for how they work.

In the broader sense, though, I am nowhere near calling a bottom to this market yet, either long term or short term.  See my post on the Nearly Death Cross.  More on the watchlists at the weekend.

I’m used to these charts…. I nearly forgot.  The daily trade triangles are the small indicators, red for out, green for in.  They are Marketclub’s fastest indicators.

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IntersectioNx watchlist update

7 Aug

The page containing our IntersectioNx watchlist has been updated.  You may review it HERE.

The watchlist, which has eleven stocks this week, is comprised of stocks which appear on BOTH the Investors Business Daily 50  AND the Stocktwits50 watchlists.  Those stocks which also appear on BOTH  lists top 10s are shown in bold italics.

This list is not a recommendation.  It is only a representation of the intersection of two publicly published watchlists.  The individual lists probably contain other issues that will have greater profit (or loss) potential.  However, this list will form the basis of one of my shopping lists if I see an explosive rebound develop and those stocks that are Top10 components will be where I start.

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