Tag Archives: SPY

Portfolio Weighting: Equal weighting, part 1. S+P500 considerations.

3 Jul

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I do not automatically assume that everyone knows or understands that the S&P500, and indeed its sectors, are capitalization weighted rather than being equally weighted.  Although, being color blind, I am not totally enamored of the current fad on “maps” of market sectors, this is one of those times when a graphical representation is the best way of briefly explaining, or showing, how the capitalization weighting employed in the S&P500 (and many other popular indices for that matter) works to skew the influence of one stock over another in the index or the sector.  This map of the S&P500 and is from the good folks at finviz.com:  (click on any graphic to view full size).

So, for example, Apple (AAPL) makes up a much larger part of the S&P500 than does Dell (DELL) and so changes in its price will have a larger influence on the index.  This is what you are buying when you buy the S&P500 ETF SPY, or one of its many clones.

But what if you changed how these stocks are weighted but still included all the stocks in the S&P500?  How about if every stock in the S&P500 were to be weighted equally?  That’s non-discrimination for you, but apart from that, what impact would it have on returns?  We’ll take a look at that in a bit, but you should know that Rydex has such an equally-weighted S&P500 product, ticker RSP where all the stocks in the S&P500 are equally weighted.  Please note that the stocks are equally weighted but the sectors are not.  RSP follows the S&P 500 equal-weight index (and actually with little tracking error) which S&P describes thusly:

The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (S&P 500 EWI) is the equal-weight version of the widely regarded S&P 500. The index has the same constituents as the capitalization weighted S&P 500, but each company in the S&P 500 EWI is allocated a fixed weight.

If you want equally weighted sectors not stocks, and don’t want to do it yourself using the sector SPDRs, ALPS has an ETF of ETFs that will do it for you, their ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF.  On their website ALPS says:

The ALPS Equal Sector Weight ETF (Ticker Symbol: EQL) is an ETF of ETFs that delivers exposure to the US Large Cap Equity market by investing equal proportions in each of the 9 Select Sector SPDRs.

The only problem with EQL is its very low volume, which frankly is a turn-off.  SPY counts its daily volume in millions and RSP well into the hundreds of thousands so no worries there.

As to performance, equal weighting of stocks pays off.  Over a year,we can see that RSP has a material uplift over SPY.  An extra 6% a year isn’t to be sneezed at.

Shown graphically in TC2000 chart we can see how closely EQL actually sticks to SPY but RSP’s overperformance is plain to see:

For the year to date things are a bit closer but RSP still has the lead, and it’s enough to make a difference:

But how about in the recent/current correction? EQL edges out a lead here but in practical terms it looks as if RSP does better for us in down markets than the standard equity weighted SPY, and again by enough to make a difference.

Over a two and five year period, the comparison graphs look like this (EQL excluded from the 5-year as it hasn’t been around that long):

CONCLUSION: From the 5-year chart we can see that RSP doesn’t always outperform SPY, but based on recent experience, and the fact that over five years RSP roughly doubles the performance of the S&P500 while still investing in the same portfolio group, it looks as if it would be hard to exclude it from consideration in portfolio design.

PLEASE NOTE:  PALADIN MONEY REVIEWS ARE FOR EXPERIMENTATION, EDUCATION, ILLUSTRATION AND DISCUSSION ONLY.  THEY ARE NOT SOLICITATIONS TO PURCHASE SECURITIES OR INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATIONS

XRO: Guggenheim Sector Rotation ETF

20 Jun

Readers will know that I enjoy following sector performance and rotation.  A week or so ago my attention was drawn to ticker XRO, Guggenheim’s sector rotation ETF.  Guggenheim describes XRO as:

The Guggenheim Sector Rotation ETF (NYSE Arca: XRO), seeks investment results that correspond generally to the performance, before the Fund’s fees and expenses, of an equity index called the Zacks Sector Rotation Index (the “Zacks Sector Rotation Index” or “Index”). The Fund will invest at least 90% of its total assets in common stocks, American depositary receipts (“ADRs”) and master limited partnerships (“MLPs”) that comprise the Index and depositary receipts representing common stocks included in the Index (or underlying securities representing ADRs included in the Index).

As you’re probably wondering about the Zacks Sector Rotation Index right about now, WIKINVEST.COM says:(my italics)

Created by Zacks Investment Research, the Zacks Sector Rotation Index (ZAXSR) comprises 100 stocks selected from a universe made up of the 1,000 largest listed equity companies based on market capitalization. The index uses a proprietary quantitative methodology to over weight sectors with potentially superior risk-return profiles. Its objective is to over weight those sectors that combined have the potential to outperform on a risk-adjusted basis the S&P 500 and other benchmark indices.

So, Zacks is using a quant that they don’t want to share to try to define a better than average sector mix.  This is what they’ve been picking:  (as always, click on any of our images to view full-size).

If one charts XRO and throws in the ETF SPY as a comparison  (I went from the start of the bull rally last September) it has outperformed SPY but it rather looks to me to just float above it:

But to the numbers.  Just how has XRO done?  I used VectorVest’s quick test module after adding XRO to my Sector SPDRs watchlist.  So, don’t forget, this excludes dividends.  Starting at September 1st 2010 to date, through a few up and down cycles XRO has returned 19.68% versus SPY’s 17.74%.  That’s nearly a 2% difference which may not sound like a lot but it is an 11% leg-up over SPY.  What you will note is that several sector ETFs handily outperformed XRO.

How about the year to date? Well, not so good.  XRO actually lost money and was beaten by SPY which actually made a small profit.

And how about since the start of the current correction (called that even though we didn’t hit a 10% sell-off).  I think we should call it the current unpleasantness. :-)

Agin XRO under-performed SPY.  Both lost money, but XRO lost more.   If you look at the allocations Zacks Index seems to like Tech, as do I, but I’m not heavily invested in it overweight all the time. The time period chosen certainly makes a difference.  Using the quarters in the Guggenhein sector map we see XRO outperforming SPY three out of four quarters, one of which is not over:

  • 7/2-10/4/2010     XRO 13.76%     SPY 11.3%      Diff 21.7%
  • 10/5-1//4/11         XRO 10.48%     SPY 9.43%     Diff 11.1%
  • 1/5-4/4/11             XRO 5.02%        SPY 4.4%      Diff 14%
  • 4/5/11 – now         XRO -6.76%       SPY -4.6%     Diff -62.5%

It looks as if XRO can nicely outperform SPY in Bull markets, not so good to the downside.  XRO charges 0.6% management fee.  In whatever period we looked, XRO didn’t place much higher than about half way up the list of Sector SPDRs.  But, the fact that it can outperform during market moves to the upside.

Do ETF charges matter?

23 Jan

Good question, isn’t it?  I wonder how many of us even think about fees and expenses when we review ETFs to invest in.  If I’m honest, it isn’t something that’s been on my mind but I’m going to start thinking about it.

I’m on the sidelines in the gold market right now and have been since Marketclub issued a red weekly trade triangle for GLD on January 14th 2011 @$133.10.  I liquidated my GLD positions in all my portfolios. Currently,  I’m waiting for a good signal to get back in.  I’m watching the MACD line for a turn; maybe I’ll get back in before a new green weekly trade triangle, but the green weekly will be my default re-entry point.

However, I will probably not buy back into GLD.  There are three physical gold ETfs that I know of, GLD, SGOL and IAU.  If you plot them together on a chart over a year I defy you to see any difference in performance.  However, their expense charges are not the same:  GLD, 0.40%; SGOL, 0.39%; IAU, 0.25%.  OK, so the difference between GLD and IAU over the course of a year on a $100,000 investment will only be $150, however I will take that towards my investment newsletter and website fees.  So when I go back to gold, it will be with IAU, not GLD.

The difference doesn’t only show in show gold ETFs either.  Emerging Markets draw a huge chunk of change too.   EEM, from iShares has a 0.69% expense ratio.  VWO, from Vanguard has an expense ratio of 0.27%.  That’s $420 a year on a $100,000 investment.  Now that’s a good donation to my newsletter and website fees!  Put them together on a one-year chart in Google Finance and you may notice VWO is the better choice, too.

How about the broader markets like the S&P500?   The ubiquitous State Street SPY has an expense charge of 0.09%, whereas Vanguard’s VOO charges only 0.06%.  Well, it’s only $30 but I’d rather have it in my pocket.  Long story short? Why not take  a few minutes to check alternatives and fees before pushing the trade button?  I can’t say I’d liquidate an existing position based on fee differentials, but I’m certainly going to take account of it when I buy a new position.

Disclosure: Long EEM, VWO, SPY

 

 

 

How much to double?

22 Jan

If you know your rule of 72, the answer’s easy, but just to put things into perspective here’s a simple chart showing how much our portfolio rolls up at compound rates of 5, 10, 15 and 20 percent a year:

So, over 14 years to double at 5%, 7.2 at 10%, 4.8 at 15% and 3.6 at 20%.

I point this out to you not to encourage you to seek gains by adopting risk that doesn’t fit your profile, but to point out that you can’t afford to ride extended downtrends in a buy-and-hold strategy if you mean to make your money grow.  This is one of the reasons we use Marketclub’s trade triangles in our model portfolios and in a lot of our examples — they keep you out of trouble.  If you trade the weeklies like me, you might end up with a few losing trades, but you won’t be in the market when it falls off a cliff like it did in 2008. Continue reading 

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