Tag Archives: Stocktwits portfolio

ST50, IBD50, Ix portfolio and watchlist performance: and how these lists really compare.

3 Sep

This weekly  look back will probably be the more weighty of the work we do on the watchlists this weekend.  Before we get to the numbers, we’ll look at what really differentiates the watchlists this week, and in general.

In his weekly ST50 commentary this week Ivan Hoff speaks of the difficulty that European banks are having in financing.  Please remember that last week we pointed out that Christine Lagard, the head of the IMF, was calling for increased capitalization of European banks.  She was rebuffed the following week.  Ivan also reports negative Swiss short-term interest rates.  If you remember our post “Fun with Francs” of a few weeks ago I said the Swiss would be working hard to get the value of their currency down.  Hence the negative rates.  Problem is, it hasn’t worked.  So what are the Swiss to do? Declare war on Italy?  The best suggestion I have heard is that they will have to peg the Franc to another currency, and for now the best candidate is the Euro.  In the meantime the dickering between Greece and its reluctant lenders over collateral continues.  Back home, we had the worst jobs report since 1945 this week.  Who knows where the market will go, but I am still of the opinion that affairs in Europe continue to be the other shoe waiting to drop and the results could be quite nasty if it drops the wrong way.

However, there is still money to be made if you can pick your stocks.  While the broad markets were flat to slightly negative the Stocktwits50 returned 2.18% (Fri-Fri) this week ably assisted by a 35% price hike from MITK.  The IntersectionX list was second with a 1.23% average price rise.

However, particularly in the current market conditions it’s essential that we understand how the IBD50 and ST50 differ.  This is a distribution of price changes from the two lists this week:

As you can see, the IBD50 has a much greater central tendency — twenty nine of its stock rose or fell 2.5% this week.  The ST50 has significantly higher dispersal, this week skewed to the positive side with a very nice outlier, MITK.  ALthough, even if one removes MITK from the result, the ST50 would still be #1 this week, just.  The other take home is about the IntersectioNx watchlist.  Because it draws on stocks that appear on BOTH the IBD50 and the ST50, it will always be confined to the tighter distribution of the two.  Typically, I believe this will be the IBD50.  Which is OK, because what I have hoped for this list is market-beating returns with lower volatility than either of the two parent lists.  As time goes by we’ll see how my plan works out.

The numbers tell the story of the lists based on this week pretty well to:

Yellow signifies the highest value.  We can see that typically, the ST50 has a greater dispersion of results and hence a wider range of likely outcomes.  It also has the lowest average stock prices in keeping with the types of stocks likely to be found on the ST50.

I hope this gives some slightly better insight into the nature of these lists.  I will re-run this comparison on an unscheduled basis.  Now to the numbers:

When I updated the IntersectioNx and Stocktwits Top10 portfolios midweek, in the ST portfolio we would (again)  have been better at that point sticking with the week earlier selections.  I commented on this earlier in the week, please see the comments to that post as there are some updates.

  • IntersectioNx portfolio: Last week $99,614, . This week $100,905.
  • Stocktwits Top 10: Last week $102,703, This week $103,718. (BiWeekly update, $103,742, not much difference).
  • IBD Top 10: Last week $52,409, This week $52,348

OK, our benchmarks have the following results this week (Friday to Friday):

  • S&P 500:  -0.24%
  • NASDAQ Composite:   +0.02%
  • Wilshire 5000:  -0.20%
  • Russell 2000:  -1.22%

I stil wonder if we have truly seen the bottom of this market.  I hope so, but I am not too sure about it, personally.

Our watchlists performed as follows, Friday to Friday:

  • IntersectioNx:  +1.23%, 5W5L, JAZZ +9.88%, WCN -2.97%
  • IBD50:  +1.16%, 29W20L1E, JAZZ 9.88%, HIBB -5.28%
  • IBD50 Top 10: -0.08% 4W6L
  • ST50: +2.18% 28W22L MITK +35.26%, AUQ -12.79% Best watchlist this week
  • ST50 Top-10: +1.22%

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The Stocktwits Top-10 portfolio puzzle

1 Sep

Before we started the weekly Stocktwits50 top-10 portfolio, you’ll recall that we tested it with a monthly update matching our monthly IBD50 portfolio holding period, and it was not that successful.  Made money, lots of trades, but the performance wasn’t up to the work.  Since then, work that I have done, and also work done by Mr. Stan Cornelius supports the contention that if one wants a weekly portfolio, pick Stocktwits.  If one is content with monthly updates, pick the IBD-based portfolio.  In Stan’s work, the models carry stops, or no stops (like our tracking portfolios).  It has taken stops to make a consistent profit in the challenging market environment we’re in right now.

Yet, over at Dark Liquidity Don has laboriously modeled the Stocktwits 50 Top-10 for the whole year.  This is run just like our tracking portfolio, and sad to say, Don’s portfolio made a loss.  Looks like he’s down 13.6%.  Don has every single one of his trades listed so if you’re interested take a look at his site.

So lately, I’ve been a bit slack refreshing the weekly portfolio as at Monday’s open.  Typically I get to it Wednesday or Thursday.  Last week, if you remember my note, I observed I would have been better off NOT making the update.  The same thing happened this week.  If I had left well alone my Stocktwits50 Top-10 portfolio would have been worth $104,881.  As it is, after the update,  $103,642.  Hmmmmm.

I remember mooting when I started the ST50 Top-10 weekly portfolio if I would do better swapping stocks every fortnight.  So I rebuilt the ST50 Top-10 tonight to see, updating every two weeks. Well, I got another puzzle.  If I had just stuck with my original selections purchased on 8/8, my portfolio would have had a 12.55% gain at $112,547.  I’d take that number especially given the market.   (By the way, big shout out to Ivan on MITK — 60% gain, that what you call blowing a Bollinger Band).  However, after updating two weeks later (eight replacements) my current value was down to a 2.7% gain at $102,769.  Adding insult to injury, if I had just held the cash from the securities I sold on 8/22 I would have been $1,829 better off!

OK, fair enough.  These are not normal market circumstances but there’s a lot of contrary holding period data coming here.  Maybe things will settle down, maybe not.  We do know that the Stocktwits 50 watchlist is “dynamic”.  But I’m starting to wonder if holding period is the proper focus.  This may be the sort of portfolio that is holding period independent and just liquidates long positions at either an x% gain or a y% loss.

I don’t have that much time to work on this right now but will make some preliminary scans.  What I would like to hear is comments from anyone in the Stocktwits community that might be working these portfolios too.  Use the comment feature.

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Stocktwits Top10 and IntersectioNx tracking portfolio updates.

25 Aug

Interesting stuff going on in the tracking portfolios this week.

I didn’t get around to making the Monday morning changes in the Stocktwits Top-10  and IntersectioNx portfolio until last night.  The updates were counter productive.  Compared to where they would have been if we had stuck with last week’s selections, both portfolio values went down.  To some extent, this is the result of the shift to gold and silver oriented issues at the weekend.  I’ll be updating the portfolio pages later.

 

 

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Stocktwits50, IBD50 and IntersectioNx list and portfolio changes and analysis.

21 Aug

A couple of things bear saying as a preface to our watchlist and portfolio changes and updates this week.  It is important that you understand that most of the portfolios shown on this site are tracking portfolios only.  What that means is, we use them to follow the relative performance of a watchlist against its peers and the markets.  As such they do not employ money management and are solely rules-based.  So, in a nutshell, just because our tracking portfolios are fully invested DOES NOT mean that Paladin Money is advocating that you should be fully invested in these portfolios.  They are presented as illustrations of watchlist performance only.

Investors are also thrown somewhat on the horns of a dilemma about gold and precious metal related stocks.  Again, so many of our questions about what to do with our money  has to do with the likely holding period, and, if you are long already, what sort of profit you are sitting on.  On the one hand, it is hard to argue against the market and gold is on a tear right now.  On the other hand, even the most rabid gold proponent would have to admit that gold’s chart is looking a bit ahead of itself.  Make your own decisions.  One question that is rarely discussed, but should be, is how one views one’s tax situation.  If one is sitting on some carried forward capital losses, having our gold (hypothetically) stopped out, realizing a nice gain, wouldn’t be catastrophic.  Otherwise, a gold holder with accumulated gains who just doesn’t want to pay taxes is stuck with holding on through any correction.  Some put portfolio insurance might be worth reviewing right about now in that case.

While some good stocks are looking like value plays, I am personally not sure we are done on the downward path yet, hence, being in cash is a comfortable place to be.  Just remember cash doesn’t have to be US dollars.  And, for those determined to invest somewhere, take a look at the commodity ETFs.  There are some interesting moves afoot there.

To our watchlists:

STOCKTWITS 50.  The Stocktwits 50 is actually the Stocktwits 30 this week.  I really liked Ivan’s commentary this week and the fact that he is prepared to reduce the size of the list if he can’t find the right candidates.  This differentiates the ST50 in a significant way — it is subject to review and judgement by a human being.  While I am personally very big on pure rules-based plans, because it has been my observation when I and others are playing with their own real money, emotions and good judgement often pick divergent paths for our investing decisions — I very much appreciate Ivan’s decision process.

Our Stocktwits 50 (30) watchlist updates of movers and ranking changes are up to date.  We have also initiated coverage of our Stocktwits Top-10 weekly tracking portfolio, which is now two weeks old.  Of the Top-10ers, SUSS looks to be most on a ride.  Would’ve thought convenience stores were that exciting?

INTERSECTIONx

We will be updating the IntersectioNx portfolio tomorrow, which will entail a reduction to a total of six positions.  On the IntersctioNx watchlist, it is interesting how HANS has hung on.  Maybe folk are loathe to give up their Monsters.  Interesting how strong Hanson’s rebound was in the brief rally.

Investors Business Daily IBD50

As I commented in last night’s update our IBD50 Top-10 portfolio is in negative territory for the first time since we started it.  It is due for an update next week.  I was surprised by the number of changes in the IBD 50 this week.  While relatively high, I had expected there to be more.  For sure there will be set up a great wailing and a gnashing of teeth in the land of the yoga lovers — what horrors! Lululemon is off the IBD50!  I am personally mystified by some of the things that happen with the IBD50, and I’m never sure just how much it’s really the result of a “black box” and how much human intervention there is.  But the fact that it is really different from the  Stocktwits50 is never so obvious as this week.  I am wondering at some of the ranking changes too.  While not doubting that Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) is a fine company, I am wondering just exactly what vaulted it sixteen places up the IBD50.  Perhaps it was the failings of others.

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